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How the Science of Decision-Making Will Help Us Make Better Strategic Choices

Singularity HUB - 17 Leden, 2018 - 16:00

Neuroscientist Brie Linkenhoker believes that leaders must be better prepared for future strategic challenges by continually broadening their worldviews.

As the director of Worldview Stanford, Brie and her team produce multimedia content and immersive learning experiences to make academic research and insights accessible and useable by curious leaders. These future-focused topics are designed to help curious leaders understand the forces shaping the future.

Worldview Stanford has tackled such interdisciplinary topics as the power of minds, the science of decision-making, environmental risk and resilience, and trust and power in the age of big data.

We spoke with Brie about why understanding our biases is critical to making better decisions, particularly in a time of increasing change and complexity.

Lisa Kay Solomon: What is Worldview Stanford?

Brie Linkenhoker: Leaders and decision makers are trying to navigate this complex hairball of a planet that we live on and that requires keeping up on a lot of diverse topics across multiple fields of study and research. Universities like Stanford are where that new knowledge is being created, but it’s not getting out and used as readily as we would like, so that’s what we’re working on.

Worldview is designed to expand our individual and collective worldviews about important topics impacting our future. Your worldview is not a static thing, it’s constantly changing. We believe it should be informed by lots of different perspectives, different cultures, by knowledge from different domains and disciplines. This is more important now than ever.

At Worldview, we create learning experiences that are an amalgamation of all of those things.

LKS: One of your marquee programs is the Science of Decision Making. Can you tell us about that course and why it’s important?

BL: We tend to think about decision makers as being people in leadership positions, but every person who works in your organization, every member of your family, every member of the community is a decision maker. You have to decide what to buy, who to partner with, what government regulations to anticipate.

You have to think not just about your own decisions, but you have to anticipate how other people make decisions too. So, when we set out to create the Science of Decision Making, we wanted to help people improve their own decisions and be better able to predict, understand, anticipate the decisions of others.

“I think in another 10 or 15 years, we’re probably going to have really rich models of how we actually make decisions and what’s going on in the brain to support them.”

We realized that the only way to do that was to combine a lot of different perspectives, so we recruited experts from economics, psychology, neuroscience, philosophy, biology, and religion. We also brought in cutting-edge research on artificial intelligence and virtual reality and explored conversations about how technology is changing how we make decisions today and how it might support our decision-making in the future.

There’s no single set of answers. There are as many unanswered questions as there are answered questions.

LKS: One of the other things you explore in this course is the role of biases and heuristics. Can you explain the importance of both in decision-making?

BL: When I was a strategy consultant, executives would ask me, “How do I get rid of the biases in my decision-making or my organization’s decision-making?” And my response would be, “Good luck with that. It isn’t going to happen.”

As human beings we make, probably, thousands of decisions every single day. If we had to be actively thinking about each one of those decisions, we wouldn’t get out of our house in the morning, right?

We have to be able to do a lot of our decision-making essentially on autopilot to free up cognitive resources for more difficult decisions. So, we’ve evolved in the human brain a set of what we understand to be heuristics or rules of thumb.

And heuristics are great in, say, 95 percent of situations. It’s that five percent, or maybe even one percent, that they’re really not so great. That’s when we have to become aware of them because in some situations they can become biases.

For example, it doesn’t matter so much that we’re not aware of our rules of thumb when we’re driving to work or deciding what to make for dinner. But they can become absolutely critical in situations where a member of law enforcement is making an arrest or where you’re making a decision about a strategic investment or even when you’re deciding who to hire.

Let’s take hiring for a moment.

How many years is a hire going to impact your organization? You’re potentially looking at 5, 10, 15, 20 years. Having the right person in a role could change the future of your business entirely. That’s one of those areas where you really need to be aware of your own heuristics and biases—and we all have them. There’s no getting rid of them.

LKS: We seem to be at a time when the boundaries between different disciplines are starting to blend together. How has the advancement of neuroscience help us become better leaders? What do you see happening next?

BL: Heuristics and biases are very topical these days, thanks in part to Michael Lewis’s fantastic book, The Undoing Project, which is the story of the groundbreaking work that Nobel Prize winner Danny Kahneman and Amos Tversky did in the psychology and biases of human decision-making. Their work gave rise to the whole new field of behavioral economics.

In the last 10 to 15 years, neuroeconomics has really taken off. Neuroeconomics is the combination of behavioral economics with neuroscience. In behavioral economics, they use economic games and economic choices that have numbers associated with them and have real-world application.

For example, they ask, “How much would you spend to buy A versus B?” Or, “If I offered you X dollars for this thing that you have, would you take it or would you say no?” So, it’s trying to look at human decision-making in a format that’s easy to understand and quantify within a laboratory setting.

Now you bring neuroscience into that. You can have people doing those same kinds of tasks—making those kinds of semi-real-world decisions—in a brain scanner, and we can now start to understand what’s going on in the brain while people are making decisions. You can ask questions like, “Can I look at the signals in someone’s brain and predict what decision they’re going to make?” That can help us build a model of decision-making.

I think in another 10 or 15 years, we’re probably going to have really rich models of how we actually make decisions and what’s going on in the brain to support them. That’s very exciting for a neuroscientist.

Image Credit: Black Salmon / Shutterstock.com

Kategorie: Transhumanismus

How the Science of Decision-Making Will Help Us Make Better Strategic Choices

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 16:00

Neuroscientist Brie Linkenhoker believes that leaders must be better prepared for future strategic challenges by continually broadening their worldviews. As the director of Worldview Stanford, Brie and her team produce multimedia content and immersive learning experiences to make academic research …


Link to Full Article: Read Here

Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Mezi fázemi Měsíce a zemětřeseními prý neexistuje žádná spojitost

Živě.cz - 17 Leden, 2018 - 16:00
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Živě.cz - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:38
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Kategorie: IT News

4 Emerging Adtech Trends to Watch in 2018

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:37

In 2018, machine learning will start to power dynamic flooring. Publishers will have better insight into the value of an impression based on day of the month, the day of the week and even hour of the day. The ability to truly understand how much their inventory is worth and set price floors in real time offers …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

NRF 2018 comment: A new era of retail intelligence

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:37

Retail Next's have built upon its retail analytics experience with the launch of aurora V2, this very clever retail analytics sensor which now has on-board deep learning based AI, this again is another example of where in-store devices are being used to process and analyse data rather than pushing it to …


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Security Risk Management Considerations for Small & Medium-Sized Business

InfoSec Institute Resources - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:34

Risk is inherent in any type of business endeavor whether you have a small or massive multinational business. When it comes to small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), the risks tend to carry greater consequences. SMBs are not able to “bounce back” as quickly from security incidents as larger companies because they do not have the […]

The post Security Risk Management Considerations for Small & Medium-Sized Business appeared first on InfoSec Resources.

Security Risk Management Considerations for Small & Medium-Sized Business was first posted on January 17, 2018 at 8:34 am.
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Kategorie: Hacking & Security

Google’s Self-Training AI Turns Coders Into Machine–Learning Masters

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:25

A new service, called Cloud AutoML, uses several machinelearning tricks to automatically build and train a deep-learning algorithm that can recognize things in images. The technology is limited for now, but it could be the start of something big. Building and optimizing a deep neural network algorithm …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google’s Self-Training AI Turns Coders Into Machine-Learning Masters

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:25

A new service, called Cloud AutoML, uses several machine learning tricks to automatically build and train a deep learning algorithm that can recognize things in images. The technology is limited for now, but it could be the start of something big. Building and optimizing a deep neural network algorithm …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

The Ethics of Artificial Intelligence

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:24

As someone who has worked with big data for some time, I have pushed the boundaries where this idea of relevance morphs into creepy (remember the infamous case study: How Target Figured out a girl was pregnant before her father did?). I am acutely aware of its lure to big business, and at the …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

No, machines can’t read better than humans

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:15

This includes Alibaba and Microsoft's latest efforts, both of which use deep learning to analyze sample completed tests, and from this sift out common methods of answering the questions. Liang explains: “For example, if you ask when was someone born and you have a passage describing their life, the …


Link to Full Article: Read Here

Kategorie: Transhumanismus

No, machines can’t read better than humans

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:15

This includes Alibaba and Microsoft's latest efforts, both of which use deep learning to analyze sample completed tests, and from this sift out common methods of answering the questions. Liang explains: “For example, if you ask when was someone born and you have a passage describing their life, the …


Link to Full Article: Read Here

Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google’s Cloud AutoML makes it easier to build custom machine learning models

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:14

"Currently, there are only thousands of deep learning researchers and a million data scientists across the world who can build advanced machine learning models. With Cloud AutoML, we want to help less-skilled developers build these models" said Fei-Fei Li, Chief Scientist of Google Cloud AI and ML.


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google’s Cloud AutoML makes it easier to build custom machine learning models

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:14

"Currently, there are only thousands of deep learning researchers and a million data scientists across the world who can build advanced machine learning models. With Cloud AutoML, we want to help less-skilled developers build these models" said Fei-Fei Li, Chief Scientist of Google Cloud AI and ML.


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Tibor Bosse appointed Professor of Communication Science and Artificial Intelligence

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:03

Tibor Bosse has been appointed Professor of Communication Science and Artificial Intelligence at Radboud University's Faculty of Social Sciences.


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google Cloud Woos Developers With Automated Machine Learning Tools That Do The Hard Part …

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:03

While a service that trains its own algorithms will eliminate one of the biggest pain points in using machine learning – and one on which data scientists spend much of their time – it's not yet clear what sort of market demand there will be for such help from Google Cloud, and at what price. While Li argues …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google Cloud Woos Developers With Automated Machine Learning Tools That Do The Hard Part …

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:03

Google Cloud announced Cloud AutoML on Wednesday, introducing the service as one that will make machine learning more accessible to applications from healthcare to retail. The service will be available to Google Cloud customers on a case-by-case basis, with app makers paying proportionally for …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

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Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:03

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are everywhere you look. Along with voice assistants like Siri, Cortana and Google Assistant; Spotify's Discover Weekly playlists, Gmail's smart replies and even Google's personalised search results are all examples of this helpful technology that you …


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus

Google vows to simplify creation of custom machine learning models for developers

Home AI - 17 Leden, 2018 - 15:03

Google has set its sights on speeding up the time it takes enterprises to create custom machine learning models through the imminent launch of its … AI building blocks for text, speech, natural language, video and vision via our machine learning APIs,” she said at the Cloud AutoML press conference.


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Kategorie: Transhumanismus
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