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Hey Apple! When you’re in a hole, stop digging
Soon after the non-appearance of the most important Apple Intelligence feature, Apple now finds itself in danger of digging an even deeper hole by promising iOS 19 will be the most significant upgrade in years. The problem: it again runs the risk of promising too much and not delivering enough. It’s a dangerous approach.
If the world’s most prolific source of spookily accurate speculation is correct, Apple plans “one of the most dramatic” upgrades to its operating systems yet. The report is short on detail, but it does reveal changes that appear to be focused on the user interface. Apple apparently wants to “simplify the way users navigate and control their devices,” among other things:
- The report also says to expect updates to icons, menus, apps, windows, system buttons and a new design across all systems that loosely reflects the UI of visionOS.
- And we are promised wider support for existing Apple Intelligence features across apps.
Is this really more dramatic than iOS 18? Around this time last year, Mark Gurman declared that iOS 18 would be the “biggest software update yet.” As we all know, Apple hasn’t completed that rollout yet — and already, it seems, plans another “dramatic” upgrade. I’m a little skeptical, particularly as the claim follows iOS 18, which with its bundled AI really was a dramatic upgrade, albeit it a botched one.
The problem is that at its core, Apple is a software company. It is the software that drives its story. Would the iPhone Apple introduced in 2007 have gotten anywhere without the software it ram? I don’t think so.
Apple is a software companyAt its best, Apple turns tech into something that is deeply useful, and with Apple Intelligence hopes to turn AI into something that supports you in your life, rather than dominating how you live. An applied, private, and personalized agentic AI system that helps you with your daily tasks is a really big deal. So how does Apple beat it?
To some extent, the company has become a slave to its own change cycle.
At some point, it pivoted toward software as the main driver to its product strategy. Sure, Apple makes hardware that generally works really well, but it is the software that makes the hardware invaluable. Apple’s decision to make big news with operating system upgrades each year isn’t just a developer-focused benefit, it’s also the anvil upon which the success of its hardware releases is honed.
The software story feeds the hardware story; annual free software updates usually improve the experience Apple customers have with the hardware they already own, which keeps them interested, loyal, and likely to invest in new Apple hardware next time they need to do so. The improvements usually get announced at WWDC in June, tested during the summer, and introduced in fall.
Surprise, delight – and hype…The thing is, the software does matter. So, is Apple now under pressure to build up expectations for the software updates it plans to introduce this year? If so, I think it is ill-advised to make big promises now. Having already broken its stated release schedule for what is arguably the most interesting piece of Apple Intelligence, the company would be better advised to lower expectations in order to exceed them, rather than struggle to meet them.
Surprise and delight is usually better than inflated hype.
It is worth noting that the kind of contextually personalized intelligence Apple promised to put inside Apple Intelligence is not currently available anywhere else, because it is so hard to build. That means when (or if) Apple can introduce it, it will still be ahead of most. But it still has to maintain credibility – and calling a few tweaked user interface elements the most dramatic upgrade ever doesn’t do that.
People lose faith one broken promise at a time. So, stop with the drama and promises, Apple, and focus on the art.
You can follow me on social media! Join me on BlueSky, LinkedIn, and Mastodon.
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